The odds are half the battle - what the game of poker can teach us about navigating risk

I love poker.

While I’m personally not very big on gambling, I find the game of poker to be a perfect combination of mathematic strategy and human behavior. 

Top poker players are not only human statistics machines, they are also exceptionally aware - maintaining a zen-like detachment as they constantly detect and decipher the behavior of the other players and adjust accordingly.

Much like with chess, the game theory behind poker can offer us invaluable insight into the strategic navigation of our lives and businesses away from the table.

Here are a couple of the biggest lessons I've learned from the game…

The more you focus on your last hand, the less you can do with the cards you’ve just been dealt

The game of poker operates on a landscape that is always changing.

You may have been dealt great cards in your last hand that you wasted on a bad play. You might be at the table with aggressive players, passive players, or both. You may have had a few great runs an hour ago, but the past few hands have been rough and you start to wonder if the next one will be too. 

This is why maintaining presence is so important. While the landscape is always changing, the game and its foundations remain the same. The more you get caught up in what has changed, the easier it is to lose sight of just how in control you are in any given moment.

A player stuck in the past is less able to see how many options are available to them in the present and is less able to make a smart, level-headed decision about how to best move forward.

The world around us is always changing, yet when we try to navigate the changes each day brings, so many of us find ourselves stuck in the past. Focusing on what was and worrying about what might be not only magnifies our perceived lack of control - it actively works against us making informed and sound decisions about our present situation.

The statistics tell half of the story

There is a phase in a poker player’s development when they become married to the statistics. They spend hours memorizing charts and scenarios based on the cold hard numbers. And then at the table they become obsessed with executing a mathematically perfect game - only playing the hands most likely to win, and folding any hand that falls beneath an acceptable percentage level. 

Besides being rather boring and predictable to play against, players who obsess over the facts of the math are most likely to go “on tilt” - a phrase that refers to a state of emotional confusion or frustration in which a player adopts a less than optimal game strategy.

When a statistics-obsessed player goes on tilt, it is typically because things didn’t pan out as the math dictated they should have, leaving the player feeling confused and out of control as the game moves forward. Once a player is on tilt, they are almost always sure to lose. 

The world is full of facts and statistical generalizations intended to help us decide how we should run our lives and businesses. Examples of these include:

Having a degree in writing makes it more likely you will get a job as a writer.

Someone in your field with your education and experience typically works 50 hours a week for $50,000 dollars a year.

The economy is down and there are 10% less jobs than there were last month. 

These types of fact-based generalizations have merit to them. However, they only paint half of the truth.

When we become hyper-focused on adopting a perspective totally founded in the numbers, we dismiss the unique human being behind our life and career. We limit our opportunities before we even start. 

You may not have a degree in writing, but you may be a stellar writer with killer writing industry connections.

You may have a certain education or level of experience, but your unique ability to synthesize that background into practical knowledge may allow you to work 20 hour weeks at $100,000 a year.

There may be fewer jobs out there, but you’re not applying for millions of jobs. You’re applying for a dozen and looking for one. The 10% decrease may not affect your search at all.

Additionally, much like in poker, when we put all our eggs in the statistically sound path, we significantly increase the chance that when reality strays from the story we’ve chosen, we will go on tilt. 

We run the risk of becoming angry and confused. 

You get that writing degree but it still doesn’t lead to the opportunities it should have.

We make increasingly poor decisions due to panic and a perceived loss of control. 

You start accepting tons of jobs at a discounted rate, winding up with 80 hours of work a week for a total of $30,000 a year.

Ultimately, we feel like we’ve lost, even when we haven’t.

In poker, as in life, there are certain elements we can control and certain elements we can’t. The more we over-identify with any one piece of information, especially when that information is based on the experience of others, the less present we become in crafting our own lives.

All we can do is show up each day, detached from the events of yesterday, open to tomorrow’s outcome, and ready to take the information as it comes to us. When we can allow ourselves this level of awareness and presence, we give ourselves the best shot possible at winning the hand.